Paper describing a brand new forecast mannequin that follows a number of tropical cyclones on the similar time highlighted on the duvet of the newest Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – Hurricane Analysis Division

Forecast fashions that observe particular person tropical cyclones (TCs), like NOAA’s Hurricane Climate Analysis and Forecasting (HWRF) mannequin, have contributed to important enchancment of depth forecasts for over a decade.  The unique HWRF may solely observe one TC, however latest advances enable particular person a number of nests to observe a couple of TC.  That is the primary time that the worth added to TC forecasts by storm-following nests has been quantified, with depth forecast enhancements of as much as 10% just by including nests for a couple of TC. The outcomes of this work will information storm-following nest developments within the Hurricane Evaluation and Forecast System (HAFS), NOAA’s next-generation hurricane mannequin.

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