By Paul Homewood
As common the BBC paints the newest COP as a “historic deal”!
Regardless of the hype, little or no has been achieved, because the BBC must admit:
Though a fund has been agreed in precept, there isn’t any settlement about how a lot is put in, or who pays. Crucially there isn’t any settlement that nations like China, India and Russia can pay a penny. The settlement to arrange the fund is meaningless with out solutions to those questions.
And there’s additionally no settlement to cut back emissions past COP26 pledges. Particularly creating nations are underneath no obligation in anyway to cut back emissions, as a situation for receiving this cash.
As WWF put it, the loss and harm fund might be a downpayment on catastrophe!
Western nations have at all times given billions in help for climate disasters world wide, and I don’t see this new fund being something new, apart from it should presumably be underneath some form of central management.
My guess is that any cash put into the fund will largely come out current help budgets. The Mail hit the nail on the top with this text:
There may be in actuality zero probability that the UK will be capable to afford to throw billions into the pot, and neither will the EU. Maybe essentially the most telling remark got here from Steve Barclay this morning:
You could have famous that the reduce within the abroad help price range to 0.5% of GDP, launched by Boris final yr, has now been prolonged to 2027 by Jeremy Hunt. Barclay’s remark appears to recommend that any further funds for climate losses may have come from that very same price range. There is no such thing as a manner that Hunt will return on that call, and enhance it for this new fund.
And all of this ignores the elephant within the room – the US. With the GOP now accountable for the Home, and thus in charge of the purse strings, they’re prone to block any enhance in US help, notably if it results in some pot managed by the UN.
Biden couldn’t even get the Democrat managed Congress to approve a few further billion to fulfill earlier US commitments.
We additionally must do not forget that John Kerry has been fairly forthright concerning the want for China to pay their share.
Lastly we have to take a look at the issues which haven’t been agreed at COP27.
There have been calls beforehand for the West to significantly enhance its $100 billion a yr local weather funding, with foolish figures of $1.3 trillion talked about. So far as I can see, this isn’t talked about in any respect within the Settlement.
Additionally there appears to be no point out of “reparations”, solely loss and harm. That is essential, as a result of the acceptance of the necessity for reparations would create a harmful authorized precedent, which may go away wealthy nations accountable for open-ended claims.
We’ll see what subsequent yr’s conferences deliver. However my guess is that we’ll see but extra fudge and kicking the can down the highway. There’ll in all probability be a small fund arrange, with some form of imprecise promise to extend it by 2030. And the difficulty of China and others paying their share might be one thing to be seemed in a couple of years time.
I’ll give the ultimate remark to the eminently smart Jacob Rees-Mogg:
Pit we have now not bought a couple of extra Moggies in Parliament.