The Way forward for COPs – Watts Up With That?

Visitor Humor by Dr Alan Welch FBIS FRAS — 24 November 2022


Now COP27 is throughout, bar the shouting, just a few extra info and figures can be found to assist in predicting the way forward for this World Jamboree.

Two charts turned accessible on the CarbonBrief web site that confirmed the variety of attendees and the Overrun on the ultimate session.  These have now been analysed and the findings proven beneath.

Whole Attendance.

The attendance figures have been extracted from the chart beneath.

Whole numbers, as much as COP26, have been transferred to an Excel spreadsheet and, like all Local weather Investigator price his salt, analysed Quadratic Curve by making use of a.

Projecting the quadratic curve to COP27 offers an attendance of just below 30 thousand in contrast with an precise determine of about 33 thousand.  Not unhealthy!

Projecting to COP100 leads to practically 413 thousand attendees.  I feel Greta Thunberg can be attending, on the age of 92, and can give a serious speech entitled “Blah Blah Blah …100 occasions… Blah Blah Blah).  The projection is proven beneath

The “acceleration” of attendees is 87 attendees/yr2.

Last Session Overrun

 Turning to the overrun figures the information as much as COP26 is proven beneath.

Once more, the figures have been put right into a spreadsheet and provides


Projecting the Quadratic Curve to COP27 offers an overrun of about 33 hours in contrast with an precise determine of about 36 hours.  Once more, not unhealthy.

The overrun at COP100 is predicted to be 199 hours (1 week, 1 day and seven hours) and the “acceleration” is 0.025 Hours/yr2 (90 seconds/ yr2).


The graphs are so just like Nerem’s Sea Stage predictions [ see here and here ] they have to be true!!!

The organisers of COP100 should present 10 occasions extra parking spots for personal jets and practically an infinite provide of robust espresso.

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Remark by Kip Hansen:

Alan Welch has produced a few posts analyzing Sea degree Rise Acceleration claims [.pdf] popping out of the ocean degree group headed by R.S. Nerem on the College of Colorado, Boulder.   Hyperlinks to Dr. Welch’s posts are within the Conclusions above.

For these of you who tend to take issues too significantly, please understand that this put up is supposed as humor.

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