Weekly Local weather and Power Information Roundup #537

The Week That Was: 2023-01-21 (January 21, 2023)
Dropped at You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Venture

Quote of the Week: If there’s something very barely flawed in our definition of the theories, then the total mathematical rigor could convert these errors into ridiculous conclusions.” —Richard Feynman, Lectures on Gravitation.

Variety of the Week:600,000 Hiroshima sized atomic bombs per day.

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Venture (SEPP)

Scope: The next points will probably be mentioned. TWTW had supposed to evaluation Tim Palmer’s guide, extremely praised by current Nobel laureates in physics: The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Local weather Change. How the Science of Uncertainty Can Assist Us Perceive Our Chaotic World in context of an interview of Richard Lindzen. Nonetheless, their strategy to understanding the environment is so completely different that it’s as if Palmer and Lindzen are on completely different planets with completely different atmospheres. As an alternative, TWTW will evaluation Palmer’s guide in context of Thomas Sowell’s 1995 guide: The Imaginative and prescient of the Anointed: Self-Congratulation as a Foundation for Social Coverage.

Planning Engineer Russell Schussler cited Sowell’s guide in explaining the 2 completely different approaches in addressing the issues that putting extra wind and photo voltaic on the grid is inflicting to the grid. In “Teachers and the Grid Half 3: Visionaries and Drawback Solvers” Schussler describes these two teams and the potential penalties.

Jennifer Marohasy begins a collection on floor measurement of temperatures by discussing that one of many points concerning claims {that a} current yr was hotter than earlier years is a change within the devices used to measure temperatures and the suitable procedures that needs to be adopted after making a swap, however, a minimum of in some circumstances, will not be.

Roy Spencer begins a two-part collection on the traits of urbanization at or close to floor climate stations that report excessive temperatures. In accordance with Spencer, “present homogenization methods can take away abrupt adjustments in station knowledge however can not right for any sources of slowly-increasing spurious warming.” Spencer makes use of the U.S. World Historic Climatology Community (GHCN) dataset which is maintained by NOAA. As Spencer cites, Anthony Watts and his crew have identified that many of the stations surveyed don’t meet the requirements required by NOAA laws.

Meteorologist Cliff Mass who specializes within the US Northwest stories that with the current snow and rain the drought in California is over, despite the fact that the official report keepers don’t understand it.

Meteorologist Artwork Horn discusses a prolonged chronology accessible on the net that covers early climate occasions from concerning the time of Christ to 1900. This can be a useful useful resource in checking claims {that a} sure excessive climate occasion is “unprecedented,” that’s by no means had been recognized to happen earlier than.

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Rigor With out Math: Because the time of Galileo, arithmetic has been thought of the language of science.  Sadly, like each different language, it may well mislead and deceive. Or as Richard Feynman has mentioned:

“The primary precept is that you need to not idiot your self and you’re the best individual to idiot.”

This warning applies to mathematical modelers. Within the Seventies and 80s, a trendy idea amongst economists was the “balanced price range multiplier,” if a central authorities expanded taxes and spending equally, the price range could possibly be balanced, and prosperity elevated. Probably the most excessive instance was the Soviet Union, a non-market economic system the place the federal government managed the foremost taxing and spending. Many famous economists claimed the Soviet economic system was comparable, and even higher, than the US economic system. Nonetheless, when the Soviet economic system imploded, the balanced price range multiplier quietly disappeared from the textbooks.

An impressive economist who gained discover on the time is Thomas Sowell. As his profession developed, he moved from utilizing equations, graphs, and jargon to elucidate tough financial ideas through the use of plain, clear English. He was in a position to clarify ideas that largely eluded others, corresponding to those he articulates in his 1995 guide: The Imaginative and prescient of the Anointed: Self-Congratulation as a Foundation for Social Coverage.

Later he wrote Fundamental Economics: A Citizen’s Information to the Economic system. It took him ten years and he thought of it probably the most demanding undertaking he ever undertook. In Fundamental Economics, Sowell attracts examples from all over the world and from historical past as a result of:

“…the essential ideas of economics will not be restricted to trendy capitalist societies and apply even to conditions the place no cash adjustments palms, corresponding to caring for wounded troopers on a battlefield. The main target of Fundamental Economics shouldn’t be on how people earn cash however on how entire societies create prosperity or poverty for his or her peoples by the best way they set up their economies. Affluent nations with few pure assets, corresponding to Japan and Switzerland, are as widespread as poor nations with wealthy assets, corresponding to Russia and Mexico.” (From the mud jacket.)

The Imaginative and prescient of the Anointed is:

“…a devastating critique of the mindset behind the failed social insurance policies of the previous thirty years. Writer Thomas Sowell sees what has occurred not as a collection of remoted errors however as a logical consequence of a imaginative and prescient whose defects have led to disasters in schooling, crime, household disintegration, and different social pathology.

“That is an empirical examine by which ‘politically right’ idea is repeatedly confronted with info – and the sharp contradictions between the 2 defined when it comes to entire set of self-congratulatory assumptions held by political and mental elites. These elites – the anointed – typically contemplate themselves ‘considering individuals’ however a lot of what’s referred to as considering seems, on examination, to be rhetorical assertion adopted by evaluations of mounting proof towards these assertions.” (From the mud jacket)

Specifically, Chapter 4 covers “The Irrelevance of Proof.” Sowell notes that:

“Factual proof and logical arguments are sometimes not merely missing however ignored in lots of discussions by these with the imaginative and prescient of the anointed. A lot that’s mentioned by the anointed within the outward type of an argument seems to not be arguments in any respect. Typically the logical construction of an argument is changed by preemptive rhetoric or, the place an argument is made, its validity stays unchecked towards any proof, even when such proof is considerable. Proof is commonly notably considerable with regards to statements about historical past, but the anointed have repeatedly been as demonstrably flawed concerning the previous as concerning the current or the long run – and as supremely assured.” (p. 64) [Boldface added]

See hyperlink below Difficult the Orthodoxy. Web page references apply to the model cited.

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The Primacy of Doubt: The above paragraph neatly summarizes what’s disturbing concerning the superbly written, fantastically argued, and extremely praised: The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Local weather Change. How the Science of Uncertainty Can Assist Us Perceive Our Chaotic World – contradictory bodily proof is ignored.

Tim Palmer divides his guide into three components: 1) The Science of Uncertainty; 2) Predicting Our Chaotic World; and three) Understanding the Chaotic Universe and Our Place in It. To start with of half 3, he writes:

“A caveat: the dialogue in Half III is rather more speculative than Elements I and II.” (p. 199)

The query is are Elements I and II factual – in keeping with all bodily proof from experiments and observations? Half I is a theoretical dialogue of Chaos, the Geometry of Chaos, the issues of turbulence in fluids, nonlinear programs the place numerical precision is not possible, and potential answer to quantum uncertainty – using an ensemble of programs (ensemble of fashions). Palmer states:

“Now you see why quantum physics suits so simply right into a guide specializing in ensemble forecasting for climate and local weather prediction.” (p. 73)

One of many issues created by these addressing points arising from the ensemble of fashions (programs) is that modelers declare that the outcomes are depending on the preliminary situations and dismiss the problems. (Nonlinear programs will not be deterministic, the place a singular answer might be discovered.)

It isn’t till the second chapter in Half II, “Local weather Change; Disaster or Simply Lukewarm?” that TWTW discovered main issues in accepting the claims within the guide. On this part Palmer writes:

“Immediately from this impact, a doubling of carbon dioxide from pre-industrial occasions will heat the floor of the Earth by a little bit greater than 1°C – maybe not one thing to make a giant deal of. Right here the minimalists are right.” (p. 113)

Palmer then discusses the experiments of John Tyndall, mentioned in earlier TWTWs, who discovered that the dominant greenhouse fuel is water vapor. Palmer argues we needs to be fearful that a rise temperatures from carbon dioxide will then trigger a rise in water vapor leading to an amplification of the greenhouse impact, as said within the 1979 Charney Report additionally mentioned in earlier TWTWs. Palmer goes on to jot down:

“The greenhouse impact from this additional water vapor will increase the warming of the air from carbon dioxide alone. The direct warming resulting from a doubling of carbon dioxide is a little bit over 1°C. Nonetheless, if we add this water vapor suggestions, the warming doubles to simply over 2°C (3.6°F). If we additionally have in mind the truth that reflective ice and snow cowl on the Earth’s floor begin to disappear because the Earth will get hotter, in order that extra of the solar’s vitality is absorbed on the floor, the warming will increase to about 2.5°C (4.5°F). Now local weather change begins to develop into one thing to fret about.’ (p. 114)

Thus, not solely do the forecasts of an ensemble of local weather fashions give outcomes that begins to provide rise to concern about warming from rising carbon dioxide, however Tim Palmer’s dialogue additionally offers grounds for assessing the reliability of the ensemble of the fashions towards bodily proof. TWTW has no problem with the warming calculated from a doubling of CO2, however it takes problem with the warming from a rise in water vapor brought on by CO2 warming and a subsequent warming of the Arctic.

In reverse order, as said within the October 29 TWTW, Professor Wyss Yim of Hong Kong College compellingly described a warming of the oceans from submerged volcanoes in each the Pacific and the Atlantic. This warming is separate and distinct from the naturally occurring El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It’s false to attribute it to greenhouse fuel warming as a result of infrared radiation, the vitality of greenhouse warming, can not penetrate the oceans by greater than a millimeter (0.04 inches).

Because the 1979 Charney Report, Roy Spencer and John Christy developed a manner of utilizing knowledge collected by satellites to measure atmospheric temperature traits. These present a warming of 0.13°C, far lower than that attributed to a warming from carbon dioxide and water vapor asserted by Palmer. Additional, for over 50 years researchers have been utilizing knowledge from spectroscopic devices on climate balloons to measure adjustments within the greenhouse impact from all main greenhouse gases, the HITRAN database utilized by van Wijngaarden and Happer. Nobody has been in a position to detect a big improve in water vapor which amplifies the carbon dioxide greenhouse impact mentioned by Palmer.

For these causes, TWTW considers the Local weather Change part in Palmer’s guide as hypothesis contradicted by bodily proof, regardless of how brilliantly written and extremely praised. See hyperlink below Defending the Orthodoxy and applicable TWTWs. Web page references apply to the model cited.

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Visionaries and Drawback Solvers: Planning Engineer Russell Schussler begins his new essay:

“The potential of local weather change with an unworkable grid is probably the most horrifying potential state of affairs of all. We want visionaries and downside solvers to keep away from this state of affairs.

“That is the third installment in a collection regarding lecturers and the grid. Half 1 noticed that it was incessantly the case that a tutorial paper which solved some element of an issue integrating a’ inexperienced’ useful resource could be interpreted to suggest that every one issues related to integrating that ‘inexperienced’ useful resource had been solved.  Half 2 regarded on the massive physique of papers printed on the web zero transition and famous many of the consideration was on smaller parts, whereas the bigger issues related to the grid have been ignored. This physique of analysis as an entire generate severe misimpressions by distracting from the foremost issues and inflicting coverage makers to low cost the numerous challenges forward in growing renewable penetration.

“Within the earlier submit “Teachers and the Grid Half 2: Are They Learning the Proper Issues?” it was famous that researchers on grid points associated to an vitality transition, could possibly be roughly divided into two camps. I referred to the primary of those teams as Visionaries and the second group as Drawback Solvers. The examine work and proposals from these two teams are approached in several methods, have differing audiences and sadly are unequal in impacting vitality coverage.

“Drawback Solvers are likely to work on current and rising challenges. These are extremely technical lecturers, engineers, and scientists.  They have an inclination to search for options to rising issues with out questioning their drivers. Drawback solvers ask themselves how can we higher adapt to the rise wind and photo voltaic we’re seeing on the grid. For probably the most half they don’t query or endorse the rising traits. They see their work as necessary for sustaining the grid. Whereas they’re our greatest hope for adapting to alter, some may even see them as instruments of the trade with too slim a spotlight.

“Visionaries are idealistic and consequently extra prone to advance analysis and improvement to realize larger societal targets. They see their work as vital for the planet as an entire. They advocate for decreasing carbon emissions and promote analysis to facilitate the objective of CO2 discount. The Visionaries share the angle that the ‘inexperienced vitality’ transition lies someplace between ‘we will do that’ to ‘as soon as we get this going, we are going to determine all of it out and the advantages will probably be monumental.’”

Later Schussler discusses the distinction in mathematical expertise between the visionaries and downside solvers as they apply to the grid:

I’ll observe that the arithmetic utilized by the Teachers to take a look at useful resource alternative, backup and transmission doesn’t go a lot past arithmetic with perhaps some likelihood and statistics. Even then the examine work is commonly performed by modelling software program. The arithmetic wanted for Drawback Solvers to deal with the foremost issues span arithmetic from arithmetic to algebra, trigonometry, calculus, and differential equations. It might be an excessive amount of to anticipate that many Teachers with technological information and capabilities would dedicate their efforts to sabotaging their profession.

Schussler makes wonderful factors in dialogue of conspiracy theories:

“I’m enormously suspicious of ‘conspiracy theories.’ I can’t imagine that any components of the inexperienced motion or any governments are plotting to convey down the grid and set again industrialized civilization. But when they have been, an excellent technique would look quite a bit like what we’re seeing. How may one search to show the financial and dependable grid right into a pricey, difficult system susceptible to blackouts? Discarding reliable mills and changing with asynchronous intermittent expertise could be a great way. To assist this transition and forestall questions, within the public area, have respected scientists (Teachers) choose small issues and present that they could be solved. This work will distract from the actual issues. Inspecting the challenges evaluated by the Teachers, the transition may look doable. Within the background technical specialists (the Drawback Solvers) work on forestalling the issues that may quickly develop into insurmountable. Whereas the grid transition shouldn’t be a nefarious plot, we could be higher off it was. As Dietrich Bonhoeffer described malice could also be a lesser enemy that what we face. Coping with well-intentioned however misled true believers who develop into extra strident and dedicated within the face of accelerating proof of the brief comings could also be a way more alarming state of affairs than what’s described on this paragraph.”

Schussler concludes with:

‘We’re a good distance from determining find out how to remedy for a internet zero grid when it comes to simply idea and what may work on paper for a lot of basic rising grid issues. Work is underway on the puzzle items with combined outcomes. How they could match collectively takes it to a different degree. The challenges of a fast transition to a internet zero carbon grid dwarf the complexities of the Kemper [carbon capture] and Ivanpah [central solar] tasks. Brilliant engineers, scientists and lecturers are engaged on the challenges, however they don’t trumpet their issues as do these with ‘victories’ on smaller issues. It virtually appears at time as if all of the flash and a focus is concentrated on the extra ‘minor’ successes to distract an viewers from the extra severe issues rising from wind and photo voltaic. The Visionaries may have their imaginative and prescient and Drawback Solvers will probably be dedicated to their issues. Who will tie true imaginative and prescient to the precise issues? It is going to be harmful if coverage makers are swayed by those that are overly optimistic. We will’t survive a grid transformation that regarded good on paper however ultimately seems to be as disastrous as Kemper and Ivanpah.’

The bodily proof exhibiting the advantages of including carbon dioxide to the environment are clear, the harms claimed are extremely questionable, and the trail to Web Zero is fraught with hazard. See hyperlink below Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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Floor Measurements: Points with ground-air measurements on the floor are being individually explored by Jennifer Marohasy and Roy Spencer. Marohasy is inspecting the discrepancies within the temperatures being recorded by The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in homogenization:

“…stripping away the pure warming and cooling cycles that correspond with durations of drought and flooding), and likewise by scratching historic hottest day data, then there may be the setting of limits on how chilly a temperature can now be recorded and likewise by changing mercury thermometers with temperature probes which can be purpose-built, so far as I can inform, to report hotter for a similar climate.”

Marohasy exhibits how altering devices from mercury thermometers to temperature probes adjustments excessive temperatures.

“There’s a discrepancy as a result of the worth on the ‘newest observations’ web page is the final one second studying for that 30-minute interval, whereas the worth entered into the everlasting archive is the best one second studying for the whole day.”

The World Meteorological Group (WMO) offers a transparent definitions of every day most temperature. This temperature might be learn straight from a mercury thermometer, however when utilizing a temperature probe ‘instantaneous’ values should be averaged over one to 10 minutes.”

Spencer cites the discrepancies by Anthony Watts in poor placement of devices in U.S. World Historic Climatology Community (GHCN). Nonetheless, he writes:

“I’ve taken a special strategy through the use of world datasets of inhabitants density and, extra not too long ago, evaluation of high-resolution Landsat satellite-based measurements of World Human Settlements “Constructed-Up” areas. I’ve additionally began analyzing climate station knowledge (largely from airports) which have hourly time decision, as a substitute of the same old every day most and minimal temperature knowledge (Tmax, Tmin) measurements that make up present world land temperature datasets. The hourly knowledge stations are, sadly, fewer in quantity however have the benefit of higher upkeep since they assist aviation security and permit examination of how UHI results differ all through the day and night time.”

Spencer finds:

“There are a couple of necessary and attention-grabbing issues to notice …”

1.         Few GHCN station places are actually rural: 13.2% are lower than 5% urbanized, whereas 68.4% are lower than 10% urbanized.

2.         Just about all station places have skilled a rise in constructing, and none have decreased (which might require a internet destruction of buildings, returning the land to its pure state).

3.         Biggest development has been in areas not fully rural and never already closely urbanized…. That’s, very rural places keep rural, and closely urbanized places have little room to develop anyway.”

“In Half II I’ll study how GHCN station temperature traits relate to station urbanization for quite a lot of nations, in each the uncooked (unadjusted) temperature knowledge and within the homogenized (adjusted) knowledge, and likewise have a look at how development in urbanization compares to common urbanization.”

See hyperlinks below Measurement Points — Floor

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Altering Local weather and Climate: For the chronological itemizing of early climate occasions, which TWTW has not reviewed see hyperlinks below Altering Local weather. For proof supporting the assertion by Cliff Mass that the California Drought is over see hyperlinks below Altering Climate.

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Variety of the Week: 600,000 Hiroshima sized atomic bombs per day. The 2023 multi-ring local weather circus has begun in Davos, Switzerland, on the World Financial Discussion board (WEF), as an meeting of lots of of personal jet close by demonstrates. Maybe many imagine that such a show of personal wealth is proof that the attendees perceive how financial programs work and the way private consumption of hydrocarbon fuels is wrecking the world’s economies.

A lead attendee is The Anointed Al Gore who declared that the human-caused greenhouse impact is having the impression of exploding 600,000 Hiroshima sized atomic bombs per day and inflicting the oceans to boil. TWTW didn’t run the calculations however wonders what Al Gore thinks of that enormous thermonuclear object within the sky – the Solar. See hyperlinks below Under the Backside Line and Article #1

Censorship

Activist fact-checkers are deceptive the general public on polar bear numbers

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 16, 2023

Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/paperwork/CCR/CCR-II/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019

http://retailer.heartland.org/store/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Obtain with no cost:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Local weather-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Quantity-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About World Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Obtain with no cost:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

World Sea-Degree Rise: An Analysis of the Information

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Transient, Might 20, 2019

Difficult the Orthodoxy

The Imaginative and prescient Of The Anointed: Self-congratulation As A Foundation For Social Coverage Hardcover

By Thomas Sowell, Fundamental Books, 1995

Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Imaginative and prescient-Anointed-Self-congratulation-Social-Coverage/dp/0465089941/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1674395387&sr=8-1

Teachers and the Grid Half 3: Visionaries and Drawback Solvers

By Planning Engineer Russell Schussler, Local weather And many others., Jan 15, 2023

Unsettled: Local weather and Science | Dr. Steven Koonin

By Jordan Peterson, Through WUWT, Jan 17, 2023

To be reviewed within the subsequent TWTW.

The Local weather Suggestions Debate

By Bob Irvine, WUWT, Jan 18, 2023

Oxford Union Debate On Preventing Local weather Change

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That. Jan 16, 2023

Supply hyperlink

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